US energy analysis sees renewable electricity passing coal by 2030

Enlarge / A solar thermal plant.

Yesterday, the US Energy Information Administration released its energy outlook for 2017. These annual reports provide projections of current energy trends out to 2040, and they provide policymakers with a sense of where the country could be decades from now, should things continue as they have been.

Anyone who's up on current trends wouldn't be surprised by many of the EIA's results. With coal's continued decline, natural gas becomes the dominant source of energy in the US, followed by renewable generation. Most of the scenarios the report considers see the continued growth in US energy production far outstripping a sluggish growth in demand. This pattern will transform the country into a net exporter of energy by the 2030s.

But EIA reports are notoriously conservative in their projections, and this can lead to completely unrealistic results. In the past, for example, the EIA's projections didn't foresee the radical drop in photovoltaic prices, and so the organization had solar playing little role in US energy markets. This year's version is no exception, as it suggests installation of wind power in the US will essentially stop once tax incentives run out in the early 2020s.