AFL Predictions for Week 24
Stats Chat 2024-08-13
Team Ratings for Week 24
The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Brisbane Lions 18.79 17.47 1.30 Western Bulldogs 15.39 6.04 9.40 Sydney Swans 13.55 9.23 4.30 Hawthorn Hawks 12.96 -11.08 24.00 GWS Giants 11.98 12.60 -0.60 Port Adelaide Power 10.81 8.83 2.00 Geelong Cats 8.69 10.50 -1.80 Fremantle Dockers 6.32 0.40 5.90 Adelaide Crows 6.30 9.56 -3.30 Carlton Blues 4.71 9.73 -5.00 Collingwood 3.02 14.87 -11.80 Melbourne Demons 0.52 13.91 -13.40 St Kilda Saints -2.20 -0.63 -1.60 Gold Coast Suns -4.82 -4.60 -0.20 Essendon Bombers -9.98 -17.70 7.70 Richmond Tigers -28.20 -6.13 -22.10 West Coast Eagles -31.47 -43.10 11.60 North Melbourne -32.21 -25.73 -6.50
Performance So Far
So far there have been 189 matches played, 119 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Sydney Swans vs. Collingwood Aug 09 89 – 86 22.20 TRUE 2 Brisbane Lions vs. GWS Giants Aug 10 64 – 82 20.70 FALSE 3 North Melbourne vs. West Coast Eagles Aug 10 97 – 102 12.00 FALSE 4 Fremantle Dockers vs. Geelong Cats Aug 10 62 – 73 9.50 FALSE 5 Essendon Bombers vs. Gold Coast Suns Aug 10 86 – 87 5.20 FALSE 6 Melbourne Demons vs. Port Adelaide Power Aug 10 51 – 53 -1.10 TRUE 7 Carlton Blues vs. Hawthorn Hawks Aug 11 38 – 112 0.30 FALSE 8 Richmond Tigers vs. St Kilda Saints Aug 11 51 – 99 -31.30 TRUE 9 Adelaide Crows vs. Western Bulldogs Aug 11 111 – 72 -5.70 FALSE
Predictions for Week 24
Here are the predictions for Week 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Essendon Bombers vs. Sydney Swans Aug 16 Sydney Swans -14.50 2 Gold Coast Suns vs. Melbourne Demons Aug 17 Gold Coast Suns 3.70 3 GWS Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Aug 17 GWS Giants 14.70 4 Collingwood vs. Brisbane Lions Aug 17 Brisbane Lions -6.80 5 Port Adelaide Power vs. Adelaide Crows Aug 17 Port Adelaide Power 4.50 6 St Kilda Saints vs. Geelong Cats Aug 17 Geelong Cats -1.90 7 Western Bulldogs vs. North Melbourne Aug 18 Western Bulldogs 47.60 8 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Richmond Tigers Aug 18 Hawthorn Hawks 41.20 9 West Coast Eagles vs. Carlton Blues Aug 18 Carlton Blues -27.20The post AFL Predictions for Week 24 first appeared on Stats Chat.