AFL Predictions for Week 25

Team Ratings for Week 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Western Bulldogs 18.37 6.04 12.30 Brisbane Lions 17.93 17.47 0.50 Sydney Swans 15.21 9.23 6.00 Hawthorn Hawks 14.48 -11.08 25.60 Port Adelaide Power 12.74 8.83 3.90 GWS Giants 11.36 12.60 -1.20 Geelong Cats 7.29 10.50 -3.20 Carlton Blues 7.13 9.73 -2.60 Fremantle Dockers 6.94 0.40 6.50 Adelaide Crows 4.37 9.56 -5.20 Melbourne Demons 3.97 13.91 -9.90 Collingwood 3.88 14.87 -11.00 St Kilda Saints -0.80 -0.63 -0.20 Gold Coast Suns -8.27 -4.60 -3.70 Essendon Bombers -11.65 -17.70 6.00 Richmond Tigers -29.72 -6.13 -23.60 West Coast Eagles -33.88 -43.10 9.20 North Melbourne -35.18 -25.73 -9.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 198 matches played, 125 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.1%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Essendon Bombers vs. Sydney Swans Aug 16 59 – 98 -14.50 TRUE 2 Gold Coast Suns vs. Melbourne Demons Aug 17 63 – 117 3.70 FALSE 3 GWS Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Aug 17 101 – 92 14.70 TRUE 4 Collingwood vs. Brisbane Lions Aug 17 79 – 78 -6.80 FALSE 5 Port Adelaide Power vs. Adelaide Crows Aug 17 80 – 58 4.50 TRUE 6 St Kilda Saints vs. Geelong Cats Aug 17 107 – 89 -1.90 FALSE 7 Western Bulldogs vs. North Melbourne Aug 18 138 – 42 47.60 TRUE 8 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Richmond Tigers Aug 18 131 – 68 41.20 TRUE 9 West Coast Eagles vs. Carlton Blues Aug 18 34 – 99 -27.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 25

Here are the predictions for Week 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Melbourne Demons vs. Collingwood Aug 23 Melbourne Demons 0.10 2 Geelong Cats vs. West Coast Eagles Aug 24 Geelong Cats 50.20 3 Richmond Tigers vs. Gold Coast Suns Aug 24 Gold Coast Suns -12.40 4 Hawthorn Hawks vs. North Melbourne Aug 24 Hawthorn Hawks 58.70 5 Brisbane Lions vs. Essendon Bombers Aug 24 Brisbane Lions 38.60 6 Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Aug 24 Sydney Swans 19.80 7 Western Bulldogs vs. GWS Giants Aug 25 Western Bulldogs 16.00 8 Carlton Blues vs. St Kilda Saints Aug 25 Carlton Blues 7.90 9 Fremantle Dockers vs. Port Adelaide Power Aug 25 Fremantle Dockers 3.20

 

The post AFL Predictions for Week 25 first appeared on Stats Chat.