NRL Predictions for Round 23

Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Storm 11.99 19.20 -7.20 Panthers 11.56 14.26 -2.70 Rabbitohs 8.65 15.81 -7.20 Roosters 4.72 2.23 2.50 Sharks 3.83 -1.10 4.90 Cowboys 3.18 -12.27 15.40 Eels 1.18 2.54 -1.40 Broncos -1.03 -8.90 7.90 Sea Eagles -1.26 10.99 -12.30 Raiders -1.83 -1.10 -0.70 Dragons -3.67 -7.99 4.30 Titans -6.03 1.05 -7.10 Bulldogs -7.04 -10.25 3.20 Knights -8.21 -6.54 -1.70 Warriors -8.95 -8.99 0.00 Wests Tigers -9.11 -10.94 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 168 matches played, 114 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Panthers vs. Storm Aug 11 0 – 16 5.10 FALSE 2 Warriors vs. Bulldogs Aug 12 42 – 18 0.90 TRUE 3 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Aug 12 0 – 26 -1.60 TRUE 4 Roosters vs. Cowboys Aug 13 32 – 18 3.20 TRUE 5 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Aug 13 12 – 36 -11.40 TRUE 6 Broncos vs. Knights Aug 13 28 – 10 9.00 TRUE 7 Raiders vs. Dragons Aug 14 24 – 22 5.40 TRUE 8 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Aug 14 44 – 24 -4.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Rabbitohs vs. Panthers Aug 18 Rabbitohs 0.10 2 Cowboys vs. Warriors Aug 19 Cowboys 17.60 3 Broncos vs. Storm Aug 19 Storm -10.00 4 Eels vs. Bulldogs Aug 20 Eels 11.20 5 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks Aug 20 Sharks -2.10 6 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers Aug 20 Roosters 16.80 7 Dragons vs. Titans Aug 21 Dragons 5.40 8 Knights vs. Raiders Aug 21 Raiders -3.40

 

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