Bunnings NPC Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 2

Team Ratings for Wednesday Game for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Auckland 5.35 4.50 0.90 Hawke’s Bay 5.04 5.87 -0.80 Canterbury 4.92 2.00 2.90 Tasman 4.85 5.94 -1.10 North Harbour 3.29 2.31 1.00 Waikato 2.18 2.00 0.20 Bay of Plenty 2.08 0.10 2.00 Wellington 1.90 3.58 -1.70 Taranaki 1.29 3.63 -2.30 Otago -1.35 -1.63 0.30 Counties Manukau -5.31 -6.32 1.00 Northland -5.96 -6.68 0.70 Southland -6.00 -7.01 1.00 Manawatu -9.95 -5.97 -4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 15 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Counties Manukau Aug 12 33 – 32 14.20 TRUE 2 Otago vs. Tasman Aug 13 25 – 19 -4.90 FALSE 3 Northland vs. Waikato Aug 13 10 – 16 -5.60 TRUE 4 Canterbury vs. Wellington Aug 13 43 – 10 3.00 TRUE 5 Bay of Plenty vs. Taranaki Aug 14 46 – 6 0.10 TRUE 6 Southland vs. Auckland Aug 14 23 – 24 -9.90 TRUE 7 North Harbour vs. Manawatu Aug 14 64 – 14 12.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Otago vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 17 Hawke’s Bay -3.90

 

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