Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 3

Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Auckland 5.35 4.50 0.90 Canterbury 4.92 2.00 2.90 Tasman 4.85 5.94 -1.10 Hawke’s Bay 4.52 5.87 -1.30 North Harbour 3.29 2.31 1.00 Waikato 2.18 2.00 0.20 Bay of Plenty 2.08 0.10 2.00 Wellington 1.90 3.58 -1.70 Taranaki 1.29 3.63 -2.30 Otago -0.83 -1.63 0.80 Counties Manukau -5.31 -6.32 1.00 Northland -5.96 -6.68 0.70 Southland -6.00 -7.01 1.00 Manawatu -9.95 -5.97 -4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Otago vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 17 18 – 13 -3.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Counties Manukau vs. Waikato Aug 19 Waikato -5.00 2 Taranaki vs. Canterbury Aug 20 Canterbury -1.10 3 Wellington vs. Northland Aug 20 Wellington 10.40 4 North Harbour vs. Tasman Aug 20 North Harbour 0.90 5 Auckland vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 21 Auckland 5.80 6 Southland vs. Otago Aug 21 Otago -2.70 7 Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 21 Hawke’s Bay -12.00

 

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