Potential Impact of Plan S - Delta Think
peter.suber's bookmarks 2018-09-24
"As we have discussed in our analysis of consortia cancellations, the early, concerted action of a few may not move the needle alone, but could be the beginning of a snowball effect. The question is whether the Plan S snowball will roll down the mountain, growing as it goes, or simply melt away.
The figures suggest that, even at its current levels of coverage, Plan S will take revenue out of the scholarly publishing market, and so reduce its growth. Although the effects may seem small, annual market growth is a modest 2% per year. The 0.1% reduction in market value by 2022 suggested by our models is equivalent to a 5% change from underlying growth rates.
Given Plan S principles are consistent with those of some currently non-participating organizations, others are likely to join, as we discuss above. Widespread uptake across the EU (or funders adopting similar principles in other regions) could see annual market growth reduce by a quarter to a long-term 1.5% annual figure.
An amplification effect appears to be driving the dynamics. Plan S funders attach their conditions to part-funded papers, so multi-author or joint-funded papers enable them to affect research beyond their immediate sphere of influence. Being at the vanguard of OA, the participating funders are more likely to give rise to OA publications and so pay above average in publication costs....
Whatever your position, the use of hybrid journals as a temporary stepping stone to a fully OA world is hardly news. Plan S is clearly aimed at accelerating change in this direction, and our data suggest that its small core of funders can have a significant effect...."