The Price of Big Science: Saturation or Abundance in Scientifc Publishing?

Abstract:  Science policymaking is facing a rapidly changing landscape. Rapid growth and globalization of science are complicated by the proliferation of venues for publications, which continue to grow in number at an exponential rate. The growth rate is nullifying the hypothesis about its trajectory put forth by Derek de Solla Price (1961 and 1963); he suggested that science would reach a saturation point. In fact, the current system is proliferating, not just in numbers of published articles but also in the geographic location where knowledge is produced and in the types of venues for output (such as open source). The knowledge production system shares features with complex systems, so we propose a complex systems model to test the hypothesis. The model is designed along a stock and flow relationship between knowledge creation and obsolescence that tracks closely with actual numbers. The model further suggests that the publication system will continue to see exponential growth, and with this, may have experienced a phase shift from operating under conditions of scarcity to one of abundance. Abundant systems are characterized by openness, collaboration, and sharing—all features seen in contemporary science. Policymakers may need to shift policy toward scanning and integrating abundant knowledge to account for its proliferation and distribution across the growing knowledge landscape.