Open Access Mandates and Open Access Adoption - Delta Think

"As more funders implement or consider mandates, we were curious whether the data show any connection between funders’ open access policies and open access uptake....

Although both curves are broadly similar, it seems that they diverge in the detail. The number of OA policies grew faster than OA uptake around 2001 to 2017. But we have since seen a turnaround. The proportion of OA continues to increase apace, even though the numbers of policies have almost reached a steady state....

Are policies driving OA adoption?

At first glance: Yes. Clearly there is a strong overall correlation between numbers of policies and OA uptake.

However, correlation is not causation. Policies do not necessarily mandate actions. Different funders and institutions may apply different incentives to researchers. Policies take time to take effect – as we see with Plan S. And, while the longest-standing and most robust policies are likely to see highest compliance, compliance rates are highly variable.

Whatever the correlation with policy numbers, perhaps the OA market has taken on a life of its own. It continues to grow regardless of policy numbers and – in many cases – of policy strength. Anecdotally, we can say that many publishers view OA as “the direction of travel” and are increasing their OA options often in advance of mandates....

Our underlying data show repository-only articles hovering at a steady state of around 5% of annual output; with articles in gold fully OA journals driving the increase in OA uptake...."