» How reliable is the scholarly literature?

peter.suber's bookmarks 2024-02-22


"So according to these very (very!) rough estimates, just the two fields of cancer research and psychology together add more than a million unreliable articles to the literature every five years or so. Clearly, those are crude back-of-the-envelope estimates, but they should be sufficient to just get an idea about the orders of magnitude we are talking about.

If the numbers hold that about 2 million articles get published every year, just these two fields would together amount to a whopping 10% of unreliable articles. Other major reproducibility projects in the social sciences and economics yield reproducibility rates in these fields of about 60%. Compare these numbers to a worst case scenario of all papermills together producing some 10k unreliable articles a year. If the scholarly literature really were a sinking boat, fighting papermills would be like trying to empty the boat with a thimble, or plug the smallest hole with a cork.

When will we finally get ourselves a new boat?"


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Open Access Tracking Project (OATP) » peter.suber's bookmarks

Tags: oa.quality oa.predatory oa.misconduct oa.recommendations oa.journals

Date tagged:

02/22/2024, 09:08

Date published:

02/22/2024, 04:08