Are Open Access Initiatives “Catastrophic” for Commercial Publishers? « The Scholarly Kitchen

“Elsevier has had a target on its back for years when it comes to OA, so it’s not surprising in this environment that a financial analyst is now warning that OA trends could prove ‘catastrophic’ for Reed-Elsevier, lowering their profits by 60%:  ‘Elsevier journal revenues would be under significant threat because the article processing charges it would earn for many of its publications are unlikely to prove anywhere near what the company needs to be revenue neutral. . . . We think the risk posed to the Elsevier business model is substantial. We believe investors are underestimating the disruption that both the EC and even the UK policies could pose to the business model of Elsevier . . .’  Despite what this analyst says, there are many reasons to believe otherwise, and not just for Elsevier but for most, if not all, major commercial publishers...”