Massive report details the energy economy that limits warming to 2°C

Silhouette of wind power stations over the sea at sunset. (credit: Bureau of Ocean Energy Management)

Each year, the International Energy Agency spends months preparing an analysis of the global energy economy and where it's heading. The report takes into account economic, technological, and policy developments, and it tries to project the trends that will drive our energy use for decades. This year's report suggests that a combination of economics and policy will drive an explosion in renewables, making them the largest power source built between now and 2040.

The report, however, was written at what in retrospect is obviously an awkward time: after the Paris Agreement but prior to the election of Donald Trump. As such, it's not clear how relevant some of its assumptions are, and its authors are steadfastly refusing to comment on what changes the US election might bring about.

The IEA's work is based on a massive computer model that factors in most major aspects of the world's energy economy, from basic issues like price and supply to more complicated issues like the expected lifetime of certain infrastructure. The model allows its researchers to plug in different assumptions or constraints—like limiting atmospheric carbon levels to 450 parts-per-million—and see how the globe responds.