Forecasters predict a busy Atlantic hurricane season

Ars Technica » Scientific Method 2020-04-02

Hurricane Dorian's satellite appearance on a Sunday morning in 2019.

Enlarge / Hurricane Dorian's satellite appearance on a Sunday morning in 2019. (credit: NOAA)

Everything else has been canceled this year, so doesn't it seem fair that we should cancel the Atlantic hurricane season as well? Alas, life is rarely fair, and that seems especially so in the midst of a pandemic.

The most prominent seasonal hurricane forecaster said Thursday there are several signals in the oceans and atmosphere that point toward a busy summer and fall for the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico.

According to the outlook from Phil Klotzbach, at Colorado State University, the best estimate for Atlantic hurricanes this year is eight (the average is 6.4), with a total of 16 named storms (12.1). "The probability of US major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 130 percent of the long-period average," Klotzbach's report states.

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