United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 15

Team Ratings for Week 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Leinster 11.50 10.73 0.80 Munster 8.72 10.54 -1.80 Bulls 8.58 9.00 -0.40 Glasgow 8.13 4.19 3.90 Lions 5.41 -4.26 9.70 Stormers 4.97 8.93 -4.00 Ulster 2.97 7.80 -4.80 Connacht 2.31 3.17 -0.90 Sharks -0.09 0.85 -0.90 Ospreys -0.80 -7.79 7.00 Edinburgh -1.10 -2.26 1.20 Cardiff Rugby -1.84 -5.16 3.30 Benetton -3.52 -5.12 1.60 Scarlets -13.40 -2.23 -11.20 Dragons -14.77 -8.14 -6.60 Zebre -17.06 -20.25 3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 112 matches played, 78 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.6%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Glasgow vs. Sharks Apr 20 21 – 10 12.50 TRUE 2 Ulster vs. Cardiff Rugby Apr 20 19 – 17 10.10 TRUE 3 Benetton vs. Dragons Apr 21 36 – 19 14.80 TRUE 4 Lions vs. Leinster Apr 21 44 – 12 -7.60 FALSE 5 Bulls vs. Munster Apr 21 22 – 27 5.50 FALSE 6 Stormers vs. Ospreys Apr 21 21 – 27 12.50 FALSE 7 Connacht vs. Zebre Apr 21 54 – 16 20.80 TRUE 8 Edinburgh vs. Scarlets Apr 21 43 – 18 14.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 15

Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Scarlets vs. Sharks Apr 27 Sharks -9.30 2 Ulster vs. Benetton Apr 27 Ulster 10.50 3 Zebre vs. Glasgow Apr 27 Glasgow -21.20 4 Bulls vs. Ospreys Apr 28 Bulls 13.40 5 Cardiff Rugby vs. Edinburgh Apr 28 Cardiff Rugby 3.30 6 Lions vs. Munster Apr 28 Lions 0.70 7 Stormers vs. Leinster Apr 28 Leinster -2.50 8 Dragons vs. Connacht Apr 28 Connacht -13.10

 

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