Top 14 Predictions for Round 22

Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Stade Toulousain 7.33 7.24 0.10 Stade Rochelais 5.93 6.40 -0.50 Toulon 5.26 3.11 2.10 Racing 92 4.21 3.42 0.80 Bordeaux Begles 4.03 4.07 -0.00 Stade Francais 3.16 2.62 0.50 Section Paloise 0.83 -0.44 1.30 Castres Olympique 0.05 -0.39 0.40 Montpellier -0.09 2.09 -2.20 Bayonne -0.62 -1.32 0.70 Lyon -1.10 2.97 -4.10 Clermont -1.11 1.47 -2.60 USA Perpignan -1.46 -3.64 2.20 US Oyonnax -8.81 -10.00 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 147 matches played, 109 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.1%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Rochelais Apr 21 25 – 24 0.60 TRUE 2 Section Paloise vs. Montpellier Apr 21 31 – 23 7.40 TRUE 3 Stade Francais vs. Bayonne Apr 21 28 – 24 11.00 TRUE 4 Toulon vs. Stade Toulousain Apr 21 20 – 19 4.80 TRUE 5 US Oyonnax vs. Racing 92 Apr 21 13 – 43 -5.00 TRUE 6 USA Perpignan vs. Lyon Apr 21 51 – 20 4.50 TRUE 7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Clermont Apr 22 41 – 7 10.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Bayonne vs. Bordeaux Begles Apr 28 Bayonne 1.90 2 Lyon vs. Section Paloise Apr 28 Lyon 4.60 3 Montpellier vs. USA Perpignan Apr 28 Montpellier 7.90 4 Stade Rochelais vs. Toulon Apr 28 Stade Rochelais 7.20 5 Stade Toulousain vs. Racing 92 Apr 28 Stade Toulousain 9.60 6 US Oyonnax vs. Castres Olympique Apr 28 Castres Olympique -2.40 7 Clermont vs. Stade Francais Apr 29 Clermont 2.20

 

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