Super Rugby Predictions for Week 10

Team Ratings for Week 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Blues 14.35 12.20 2.20 Chiefs 13.31 13.21 0.10 Hurricanes 13.30 9.73 3.60 Crusaders 13.24 18.86 -5.60 Brumbies 6.31 6.52 -0.20 Reds 2.26 0.07 2.20 Highlanders -1.04 1.17 -2.20 Waratahs -2.05 -1.90 -0.10 Rebels -3.87 -4.59 0.70 Western Force -6.91 -6.15 -0.80 Fijian Drua -7.73 -9.21 1.50 Moana Pasifika -12.06 -10.80 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.6%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Fijian Drua vs. Hurricanes Apr 19 15 – 38 -15.30 TRUE 2 Reds vs. Highlanders Apr 19 31 – 0 6.50 TRUE 3 Blues vs. Brumbies Apr 20 46 – 7 11.00 TRUE 4 Western Force vs. Crusaders Apr 20 37 – 15 -17.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 10

Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Crusaders vs. Rebels Apr 26 Crusaders 22.10 2 Waratahs vs. Chiefs Apr 26 Chiefs -10.40 3 Fijian Drua vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 27 Fijian Drua 9.30 4 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes Apr 27 Hurricanes -2.00 5 Highlanders vs. Western Force Apr 27 Highlanders 10.90 6 Reds vs. Blues Apr 27 Blues -7.10

 

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