Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 16

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Bristol 9.94 1.00 8.90 Saracens 8.87 6.82 2.10 Northampton Saints 4.76 2.66 2.10 Bath 3.70 -1.26 5.00 Leicester Tigers 2.58 6.13 -3.50 Sale Sharks 1.58 6.46 -4.90 Harlequins 0.92 1.93 -1.00 Exeter Chiefs -2.25 -0.89 -1.40 Gloucester -3.28 -1.45 -1.80 Newcastle Falcons -16.07 -10.63 -5.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 75 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.7%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Bristol vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 21 85 – 14 24.30 TRUE 2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Apr 21 14 – 26 2.60 FALSE 3 Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers Apr 21 40 – 17 5.10 TRUE 4 Saracens vs. Gloucester Apr 21 46 – 24 17.30 TRUE 5 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Apr 22 37 – 31 6.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Bath vs. Saracens Apr 28 Bath 0.80 2 Gloucester vs. Exeter Chiefs Apr 28 Gloucester 5.00 3 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Apr 28 Harlequins 2.20 4 Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol Apr 28 Bristol -1.40 5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks Apr 28 Sale Sharks -11.60

 

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