AFL Predictions for Week 8
Stats Chat 2024-04-23
Team Ratings for Week 8
The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Geelong Cats 16.35 10.50 5.90 Melbourne Demons 15.87 13.91 2.00 Brisbane Lions 13.39 17.47 -4.10 GWS Giants 12.58 12.60 -0.00 Carlton Blues 12.01 9.73 2.30 Sydney Swans 11.20 9.23 2.00 Collingwood 11.12 14.87 -3.70 Western Bulldogs 8.43 6.04 2.40 Port Adelaide Power 7.23 8.83 -1.60 Adelaide Crows 2.88 9.56 -6.70 Fremantle Dockers 1.41 0.40 1.00 St Kilda Saints -0.60 -0.63 0.00 Gold Coast Suns -4.80 -4.60 -0.20 Richmond Tigers -10.08 -6.13 -3.90 Essendon Bombers -10.54 -17.70 7.20 Hawthorn Hawks -14.46 -11.08 -3.40 North Melbourne -33.24 -25.73 -7.50 West Coast Eagles -34.58 -43.10 8.50
Performance So Far
So far there have been 54 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 St Kilda Saints vs. Western Bulldogs Apr 18 64 – 124 -2.10 TRUE 2 Adelaide Crows vs. Essendon Bombers Apr 19 75 – 78 26.30 FALSE 3 Collingwood vs. Port Adelaide Power Apr 20 123 – 81 8.50 TRUE 4 Carlton Blues vs. GWS Giants Apr 20 117 – 98 5.50 TRUE 5 Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong Cats Apr 20 37 – 63 10.70 FALSE 6 West Coast Eagles vs. Fremantle Dockers Apr 20 105 – 68 -45.30 FALSE 7 Sydney Swans vs. Gold Coast Suns Apr 21 110 – 57 20.80 TRUE 8 North Melbourne vs. Hawthorn Hawks Apr 21 68 – 113 -4.70 TRUE
Predictions for Week 8
Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Richmond Tigers vs. Melbourne Demons Apr 24 Melbourne Demons -26.00 2 Essendon Bombers vs. Collingwood Apr 25 Collingwood -30.70 3 GWS Giants vs. Brisbane Lions Apr 25 GWS Giants 8.20 4 Port Adelaide Power vs. St Kilda Saints Apr 26 Port Adelaide Power 16.80 5 North Melbourne vs. Adelaide Crows Apr 27 Adelaide Crows -27.10 6 Geelong Cats vs. Carlton Blues Apr 27 Carlton Blues -4.70 7 Fremantle Dockers vs. Western Bulldogs Apr 27 Fremantle Dockers 2.00 8 Gold Coast Suns vs. West Coast Eagles Apr 28 Gold Coast Suns 38.80 9 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Sydney Swans Apr 28 Sydney Swans -16.70The post AFL Predictions for Week 8 first appeared on Stats Chat.