United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 16

Team Ratings for Week 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Bulls 10.31 9.00 1.30 Munster 10.24 10.54 -0.30 Leinster 9.20 10.73 -1.50 Glasgow 8.91 4.19 4.70 Stormers 7.27 8.93 -1.70 Lions 3.88 -4.26 8.10 Ulster 2.32 7.80 -5.50 Connacht 1.71 3.17 -1.50 Edinburgh 0.40 -2.26 2.70 Sharks -0.52 0.85 -1.40 Ospreys -2.52 -7.79 5.30 Benetton -2.87 -5.12 2.20 Cardiff Rugby -3.34 -5.16 1.80 Scarlets -12.97 -2.23 -10.70 Dragons -14.16 -8.14 -6.00 Zebre -17.84 -20.25 2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 83 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.2%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Scarlets vs. Sharks Apr 27 27 – 32 -9.30 TRUE 2 Ulster vs. Benetton Apr 27 38 – 34 10.50 TRUE 3 Zebre vs. Glasgow Apr 27 9 – 40 -21.20 TRUE 4 Bulls vs. Ospreys Apr 28 61 – 24 13.40 TRUE 5 Cardiff Rugby vs. Edinburgh Apr 28 7 – 24 3.30 FALSE 6 Lions vs. Munster Apr 28 13 – 33 0.70 FALSE 7 Stormers vs. Leinster Apr 28 42 – 12 -2.50 FALSE 8 Dragons vs. Connacht Apr 28 27 – 34 -13.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 16

Here are the predictions for Week 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Dragons vs. Stormers May 11 Stormers -17.40 2 Edinburgh vs. Zebre May 11 Edinburgh 22.20 3 Bulls vs. Glasgow May 12 Bulls 5.40 4 Scarlets vs. Ulster May 12 Ulster -11.30 5 Sharks vs. Benetton May 12 Sharks 6.30 6 Lions vs. Cardiff Rugby May 12 Lions 11.20 7 Munster vs. Connacht May 12 Munster 10.50 8 Leinster vs. Ospreys May 12 Leinster 15.70

 

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