Top 14 Predictions for Round 23

Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Stade Toulousain 7.69 7.24 0.50 Stade Rochelais 6.07 6.40 -0.30 Toulon 5.11 3.11 2.00 Bordeaux Begles 4.69 4.07 0.60 Racing 92 3.84 3.42 0.40 Stade Francais 2.50 2.62 -0.10 Section Paloise 0.38 -0.44 0.80 Castres Olympique -0.22 -0.39 0.20 Clermont -0.45 1.47 -1.90 Montpellier -0.53 2.09 -2.60 Lyon -0.64 2.97 -3.60 USA Perpignan -1.02 -3.64 2.60 Bayonne -1.28 -1.32 0.00 US Oyonnax -8.54 -10.00 1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 154 matches played, 113 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.4%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Bayonne vs. Bordeaux Begles Apr 28 15 – 34 1.90 FALSE 2 Lyon vs. Section Paloise Apr 28 38 – 20 4.60 TRUE 3 Montpellier vs. USA Perpignan Apr 28 20 – 25 7.90 FALSE 4 Stade Rochelais vs. Toulon Apr 28 27 – 17 7.20 TRUE 5 Stade Toulousain vs. Racing 92 Apr 28 32 – 12 9.60 TRUE 6 US Oyonnax vs. Castres Olympique Apr 28 22 – 19 -2.40 FALSE 7 Clermont vs. Stade Francais Apr 29 41 – 18 2.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Rochelais May 12 Bordeaux Begles 5.10 2 Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier May 12 Castres Olympique 6.80 3 Racing 92 vs. Bayonne May 12 Racing 92 11.60 4 Section Paloise vs. US Oyonnax May 12 Section Paloise 15.40 5 Toulon vs. Lyon May 12 Toulon 12.30 6 USA Perpignan vs. Clermont May 12 USA Perpignan 5.90 7 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Francais May 13 Stade Toulousain 11.70

 

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