AFL Predictions for Week 9

Team Ratings for Week 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Geelong Cats 18.30 10.50 7.80 Melbourne Demons 17.75 13.91 3.80 GWS Giants 15.42 12.60 2.80 Sydney Swans 14.74 9.23 5.50 Brisbane Lions 10.55 17.47 -6.90 Carlton Blues 10.07 9.73 0.30 Collingwood 9.10 14.87 -5.80 Western Bulldogs 6.90 6.04 0.90 Port Adelaide Power 6.48 8.83 -2.30 Adelaide Crows 4.85 9.56 -4.70 Fremantle Dockers 2.93 0.40 2.50 St Kilda Saints 0.15 -0.63 0.80 Gold Coast Suns -5.00 -4.60 -0.40 Essendon Bombers -8.52 -17.70 9.20 Richmond Tigers -11.96 -6.13 -5.80 Hawthorn Hawks -18.00 -11.08 -6.90 West Coast Eagles -34.38 -43.10 8.70 North Melbourne -35.21 -25.73 -9.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 63 matches played, 43 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.3%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Richmond Tigers vs. Melbourne Demons Apr 24 42 – 85 -26.00 TRUE 2 Essendon Bombers vs. Collingwood Apr 25 85 – 85 -30.70 FALSE 3 GWS Giants vs. Brisbane Lions Apr 25 113 – 59 8.20 TRUE 4 Port Adelaide Power vs. St Kilda Saints Apr 26 82 – 72 16.80 TRUE 5 North Melbourne vs. Adelaide Crows Apr 27 81 – 138 -27.10 TRUE 6 Geelong Cats vs. Carlton Blues Apr 27 118 – 105 -4.70 FALSE 7 Fremantle Dockers vs. Western Bulldogs Apr 27 95 – 71 2.00 TRUE 8 Gold Coast Suns vs. West Coast Eagles Apr 28 112 – 75 38.80 TRUE 9 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Sydney Swans Apr 28 42 – 118 -16.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Adelaide Crows vs. Port Adelaide Power May 02 Port Adelaide Power -1.60 2 Carlton Blues vs. Collingwood May 03 Carlton Blues 1.00 3 Sydney Swans vs. GWS Giants May 04 Sydney Swans 8.30 4 St Kilda Saints vs. North Melbourne May 04 St Kilda Saints 35.40 5 Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats May 04 Melbourne Demons 8.40 6 West Coast Eagles vs. Essendon Bombers May 04 Essendon Bombers -16.90 7 Richmond Tigers vs. Fremantle Dockers May 05 Fremantle Dockers -5.90 8 Western Bulldogs vs. Hawthorn Hawks May 05 Western Bulldogs 33.90 9 Brisbane Lions vs. Gold Coast Suns May 05 Brisbane Lions 24.50

 

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