Super Rugby Predictions for Week 15

Team Ratings for Week 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Blues 15.31 12.20 3.10 Chiefs 14.23 13.21 1.00 Hurricanes 12.87 9.73 3.10 Crusaders 12.30 18.86 -6.60 Brumbies 7.65 6.52 1.10 Reds 3.28 0.07 3.20 Highlanders -0.37 1.17 -1.50 Waratahs -4.46 -1.90 -2.60 Rebels -5.07 -4.59 -0.50 Western Force -6.60 -6.15 -0.50 Fijian Drua -8.88 -9.21 0.30 Moana Pasifika -11.16 -10.80 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 78 matches played, 52 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes May 24 17 – 20 5.10 FALSE 2 Brumbies vs. Rebels May 24 53 – 17 14.10 TRUE 3 Moana Pasifika vs. Waratahs May 25 27 – 12 -3.10 FALSE 4 Crusaders vs. Blues May 25 29 – 27 -0.30 FALSE 5 Reds vs. Western Force May 25 59 – 13 10.40 TRUE 6 Highlanders vs. Fijian Drua May 26 39 – 3 11.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 15

Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Crusaders vs. Moana Pasifika May 31 Crusaders 26.50 2 Waratahs vs. Reds May 31 Reds -4.70 3 Fijian Drua vs. Rebels Jun 01 Rebels -0.80 4 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Jun 01 Hurricanes 16.20 5 Blues vs. Chiefs Jun 01 Blues 4.10 6 Western Force vs. Brumbies Jun 01 Brumbies -11.30

 

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