United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Quarter Finals

Team Ratings for the Quarter Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Leinster 11.71 10.73 1.00 Munster 11.04 10.54 0.50 Bulls 10.80 9.00 1.80 Stormers 7.99 8.93 -0.90 Lions 6.20 -4.26 10.50 Glasgow 5.79 4.19 1.60 Ulster 3.58 7.80 -4.20 Edinburgh -0.60 -2.26 1.70 Benetton -0.79 -5.12 4.30 Connacht -1.10 3.17 -4.30 Cardiff Rugby -2.75 -5.16 2.40 Sharks -3.31 0.85 -4.20 Ospreys -3.94 -7.79 3.90 Scarlets -11.01 -2.23 -8.80 Dragons -15.77 -8.14 -7.60 Zebre -17.83 -20.25 2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 102 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.8%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Glasgow vs. Zebre Jun 01 38 – 26 30.40 TRUE 2 Leinster vs. Connacht Jun 01 33 – 7 12.80 TRUE 3 Stormers vs. Lions Jun 01 29 – 24 3.50 TRUE 4 Benetton vs. Edinburgh Jun 02 31 – 6 0.20 TRUE 5 Scarlets vs. Dragons Jun 02 32 – 15 4.90 TRUE 6 Sharks vs. Bulls Jun 02 14 – 26 -12.10 TRUE 7 Cardiff Rugby vs. Ospreys Jun 02 29 – 33 4.60 FALSE 8 Munster vs. Ulster Jun 02 29 – 24 10.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter Finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Munster vs. Ospreys Jun 08 Munster 19.00 2 Bulls vs. Benetton Jun 09 Bulls 15.60 3 Leinster vs. Ulster Jun 09 Leinster 10.10 4 Glasgow vs. Stormers Jun 09 Glasgow 1.80

 

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