NRL Predictions for Round 14

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Panthers 11.07 14.73 -3.70 Roosters 7.83 3.08 4.70 Storm 6.30 6.15 0.10 Broncos 6.29 9.07 -2.80 Sharks 3.36 2.94 0.40 Sea Eagles 1.87 -0.48 2.40 Cowboys 0.17 2.47 -2.30 Warriors -0.43 -0.07 -0.40 Bulldogs -2.25 -13.35 11.10 Dolphins -2.28 -7.09 4.80 Knights -3.05 1.84 -4.90 Raiders -4.40 -4.31 -0.10 Eels -5.41 0.14 -5.50 Dragons -6.50 -6.93 0.40 Titans -6.78 -7.89 1.10 Rabbitohs -6.91 0.87 -7.80 Wests Tigers -10.86 -13.15 2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 101 matches played, 62 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.4%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Eels vs. Sharks May 30 34 – 22 -8.20 FALSE 2 Knights vs. Bulldogs May 31 2 – 32 6.50 FALSE 3 Panthers vs. Dragons Jun 01 10 – 22 24.90 FALSE 4 Dolphins vs. Raiders Jun 01 25 – 26 6.00 FALSE 5 Roosters vs. Cowboys Jun 02 16 – 18 12.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Jun 07 Dragons 7.40 2 Titans vs. Rabbitohs Jun 08 Titans 3.10 3 Cowboys vs. Warriors Jun 08 Cowboys 7.60 4 Broncos vs. Sharks Jun 08 Broncos 5.90 5 Storm vs. Knights Jun 09 Storm 12.30 6 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles Jun 09 Panthers 12.20 7 Bulldogs vs. Eels Jun 10 Bulldogs 6.20

 

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