Super Rugby Predictions for the Semi-finals

Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Blues 15.90 12.20 3.70 Chiefs 14.23 13.21 1.00 Hurricanes 13.53 9.73 3.80 Crusaders 12.76 18.86 -6.10 Brumbies 7.42 6.52 0.90 Reds 2.58 0.07 2.50 Highlanders -1.04 1.17 -2.20 Waratahs -4.20 -1.90 -2.30 Rebels -6.09 -4.59 -1.50 Western Force -6.16 -6.15 -0.00 Fijian Drua -8.21 -9.21 1.00 Moana Pasifika -11.62 -10.80 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.3%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Hurricanes vs. Rebels Jun 07 47 – 20 24.20 TRUE 2 Chiefs vs. Reds Jun 07 43 – 21 15.80 TRUE 3 Blues vs. Fijian Drua Jun 08 36 – 5 28.80 TRUE 4 Brumbies vs. Highlanders Jun 08 32 – 16 13.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Blues vs. Brumbies Jun 14 Blues 13.50 2 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Jun 15 Hurricanes 2.30

 

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