AFL Predictions for Week 15

Team Ratings for Week 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Sydney Swans 23.49 9.23 14.30 Brisbane Lions 16.78 17.47 -0.70 Carlton Blues 12.97 9.73 3.20 Collingwood 11.94 14.87 -2.90 Fremantle Dockers 9.77 0.40 9.40 GWS Giants 9.31 12.60 -3.30 Western Bulldogs 7.99 6.04 2.00 Geelong Cats 7.86 10.50 -2.60 Melbourne Demons 5.87 13.91 -8.00 Adelaide Crows 5.37 9.56 -4.20 Port Adelaide Power 3.49 8.83 -5.30 Gold Coast Suns -0.56 -4.60 4.00 St Kilda Saints -4.92 -0.63 -4.30 Hawthorn Hawks -5.36 -11.08 5.70 Essendon Bombers -7.32 -17.70 10.40 Richmond Tigers -19.11 -6.13 -13.00 West Coast Eagles -34.49 -43.10 8.60 North Melbourne -38.92 -25.73 -13.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 114 matches played, 72 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.2%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Adelaide Crows vs. Richmond Tigers Jun 06 71 – 79 39.30 FALSE 2 Western Bulldogs vs. Brisbane Lions Jun 07 71 – 114 6.30 FALSE 3 Hawthorn Hawks vs. GWS Giants Jun 08 85 – 79 -9.00 FALSE 4 West Coast Eagles vs. North Melbourne Jun 08 65 – 74 16.90 FALSE 5 St Kilda Saints vs. Gold Coast Suns Jun 08 51 – 48 5.10 TRUE 6 Sydney Swans vs. Geelong Cats Jun 09 112 – 82 23.10 TRUE 7 Essendon Bombers vs. Carlton Blues Jun 09 70 – 96 -18.70 TRUE 8 Collingwood vs. Melbourne Demons Jun 10 89 – 51 1.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 15

Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Brisbane Lions vs. St Kilda Saints Jun 14 Brisbane Lions 30.70 2 Western Bulldogs vs. Fremantle Dockers Jun 15 Western Bulldogs 7.20 3 Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jun 15 Hawthorn Hawks -13.70 4 Adelaide Crows vs. Sydney Swans Jun 15 Sydney Swans -9.10 5 North Melbourne vs. Collingwood Jun 16 Collingwood -41.90 6 GWS Giants vs. Port Adelaide Power Jun 16 GWS Giants 14.80

 

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