United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Final

Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Leinster 12.35 10.73 1.60 Bulls 10.47 9.00 1.50 Munster 9.61 10.54 -0.90 Glasgow 8.07 4.19 3.90 Stormers 6.83 8.93 -2.10 Lions 6.20 -4.26 10.50 Ulster 2.58 7.80 -5.20 Benetton -0.09 -5.12 5.00 Edinburgh -0.60 -2.26 1.70 Connacht -1.10 3.17 -4.30 Cardiff Rugby -2.75 -5.16 2.40 Sharks -3.31 0.85 -4.20 Ospreys -3.65 -7.79 4.10 Scarlets -11.01 -2.23 -8.80 Dragons -15.77 -8.14 -7.60 Zebre -17.83 -20.25 2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 150 matches played, 107 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.3%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Bulls vs. Leinster Jun 16 25 – 20 1.40 TRUE 2 Munster vs. Glasgow Jun 16 10 – 17 7.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Bulls vs. Glasgow Jun 23 Bulls 6.40

 

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