Top 14 Predictions for the Semi-finals

Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Stade Toulousain 7.58 7.24 0.30 Stade Rochelais 5.82 6.40 -0.60 Bordeaux Begles 5.52 4.07 1.40 Toulon 5.42 3.11 2.30 Racing 92 3.00 3.42 -0.40 Stade Francais 1.69 2.62 -0.90 Section Paloise 1.32 -0.44 1.80 Clermont 0.44 1.47 -1.00 Castres Olympique -0.14 -0.39 0.30 Lyon -0.14 2.97 -3.10 Montpellier -0.97 2.09 -3.10 USA Perpignan -1.07 -3.64 2.60 Bayonne -1.83 -1.32 -0.50 US Oyonnax -9.02 -10.00 1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 184 matches played, 136 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.9%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Toulon vs. Stade Rochelais Jun 16 29 – 34 6.90 FALSE 2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Racing 92 Jun 17 31 – 17 8.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Rochelais Jun 22 Stade Toulousain 1.80 2 Stade Francais vs. Bordeaux Begles Jun 23 Bordeaux Begles -3.80

 

The post Top 14 Predictions for the Semi-finals first appeared on Stats Chat.