Super Rugby Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Team Ratings for the Super Rugby Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Blues 15.94 12.20 3.70 Chiefs 14.78 13.21 1.60 Hurricanes 12.98 9.73 3.30 Crusaders 12.76 18.86 -6.10 Brumbies 7.38 6.52 0.90 Reds 2.58 0.07 2.50 Highlanders -1.04 1.17 -2.20 Waratahs -4.20 -1.90 -2.30 Rebels -6.09 -4.59 -1.50 Western Force -6.16 -6.15 -0.00 Fijian Drua -8.21 -9.21 1.00 Moana Pasifika -11.62 -10.80 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 90 matches played, 62 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.9%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Blues vs. Brumbies Jun 14 34 – 20 13.50 TRUE 2 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Jun 15 19 – 30 2.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Here are the predictions for the Super Rugby Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Blues vs. Chiefs Jun 22 Blues 4.20

 

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