AFL Predictions for Week 16

Team Ratings for Week 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Sydney Swans 25.63 9.23 16.40 Brisbane Lions 15.61 17.47 -1.90 Carlton Blues 12.97 9.73 3.20 Western Bulldogs 11.55 6.04 5.50 GWS Giants 10.10 12.60 -2.50 Collingwood 9.36 14.87 -5.50 Geelong Cats 7.86 10.50 -2.60 Fremantle Dockers 6.21 0.40 5.80 Melbourne Demons 5.87 13.91 -8.00 Adelaide Crows 3.22 9.56 -6.30 Port Adelaide Power 2.70 8.83 -6.10 Gold Coast Suns -0.56 -4.60 4.00 Hawthorn Hawks -3.14 -11.08 7.90 St Kilda Saints -3.74 -0.63 -3.10 Essendon Bombers -7.32 -17.70 10.40 Richmond Tigers -21.33 -6.13 -15.20 West Coast Eagles -34.49 -43.10 8.60 North Melbourne -36.35 -25.73 -10.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 78 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Brisbane Lions vs. St Kilda Saints Jun 14 126 – 106 30.70 TRUE 2 Western Bulldogs vs. Fremantle Dockers Jun 15 149 – 82 7.20 TRUE 3 Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jun 15 49 – 97 -13.70 TRUE 4 Adelaide Crows vs. Sydney Swans Jun 15 67 – 109 -9.10 TRUE 5 North Melbourne vs. Collingwood Jun 16 118 – 119 -41.90 TRUE 6 GWS Giants vs. Port Adelaide Power Jun 16 73 – 51 14.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 16

Here are the predictions for Week 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Carlton Blues vs. Geelong Cats Jun 21 Carlton Blues 14.10 2 Port Adelaide Power vs. Brisbane Lions Jun 22 Brisbane Lions -3.90 3 GWS Giants vs. Sydney Swans Jun 22 Sydney Swans -6.50 4 Melbourne Demons vs. North Melbourne Jun 22 Melbourne Demons 51.20 5 Essendon Bombers vs. West Coast Eagles Jun 23 Essendon Bombers 36.20 6 Fremantle Dockers vs. Gold Coast Suns Jun 23 Fremantle Dockers 15.80

 

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