Top 14 Predictions for the Final

Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Stade Toulousain 8.06 7.24 0.80 Bordeaux Begles 5.43 4.07 1.40 Toulon 5.42 3.11 2.30 Stade Rochelais 5.34 6.40 -1.10 Racing 92 3.00 3.42 -0.40 Stade Francais 1.78 2.62 -0.80 Section Paloise 1.32 -0.44 1.80 Clermont 0.44 1.47 -1.00 Castres Olympique -0.14 -0.39 0.30 Lyon -0.14 2.97 -3.10 Montpellier -0.97 2.09 -3.10 USA Perpignan -1.07 -3.64 2.60 Bayonne -1.83 -1.32 -0.50 US Oyonnax -9.02 -10.00 1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 186 matches played, 138 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.2%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Rochelais Jun 22 39 – 23 1.80 TRUE 2 Stade Francais vs. Bordeaux Begles Jun 23 20 – 22 -3.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux Begles Jun 29 Stade Toulousain 9.10

 

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