AFL Predictions for Week 17
Stats Chat 2024-06-25
Team Ratings for Week 17
The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Sydney Swans 27.06 9.23 17.80 Brisbane Lions 19.93 17.47 2.50 Carlton Blues 15.97 9.73 6.20 Western Bulldogs 11.55 6.04 5.50 Collingwood 9.36 14.87 -5.50 GWS Giants 8.67 12.60 -3.90 Fremantle Dockers 6.67 0.40 6.30 Geelong Cats 4.86 10.50 -5.60 Adelaide Crows 3.22 9.56 -6.30 Melbourne Demons 2.91 13.91 -11.00 Gold Coast Suns -1.03 -4.60 3.60 Port Adelaide Power -1.62 8.83 -10.40 Hawthorn Hawks -3.14 -11.08 7.90 St Kilda Saints -3.74 -0.63 -3.10 Essendon Bombers -8.00 -17.70 9.70 Richmond Tigers -21.33 -6.13 -15.20 North Melbourne -33.38 -25.73 -7.70 West Coast Eagles -33.82 -43.10 9.30
Performance So Far
So far there have been 126 matches played, 84 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Carlton Blues vs. Geelong Cats Jun 21 138 – 75 14.10 TRUE 2 Port Adelaide Power vs. Brisbane Lions Jun 22 73 – 152 -3.90 TRUE 3 GWS Giants vs. Sydney Swans Jun 22 75 – 102 -6.50 TRUE 4 Melbourne Demons vs. North Melbourne Jun 22 70 – 67 51.20 TRUE 5 Essendon Bombers vs. West Coast Eagles Jun 23 122 – 92 36.20 TRUE 6 Fremantle Dockers vs. Gold Coast Suns Jun 23 85 – 65 15.80 TRUE
Predictions for Week 17
Here are the predictions for Week 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Brisbane Lions vs. Melbourne Demons Jun 28 Brisbane Lions 26.00 2 North Melbourne vs. Western Bulldogs Jun 29 Western Bulldogs -35.90 3 Sydney Swans vs. Fremantle Dockers Jun 29 Sydney Swans 29.40 4 Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood Jun 29 Collingwood -1.40 5 Adelaide Crows vs. GWS Giants Jun 29 Adelaide Crows 3.60 6 Geelong Cats vs. Essendon Bombers Jun 29 Geelong Cats 21.90 7 St Kilda Saints vs. Port Adelaide Power Jun 30 St Kilda Saints 6.90 8 Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues Jun 30 Carlton Blues -28.30 9 West Coast Eagles vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jun 30 Hawthorn Hawks -21.70The post AFL Predictions for Week 17 first appeared on Stats Chat.