NRL Predictions for Round 18

Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Panthers 9.25 14.73 -5.50 Roosters 8.89 3.08 5.80 Storm 6.60 6.15 0.40 Sharks 3.33 2.94 0.40 Broncos 3.30 9.07 -5.80 Sea Eagles 1.39 -0.48 1.90 Cowboys 0.57 2.47 -1.90 Warriors -1.87 -0.07 -1.80 Knights -2.42 1.84 -4.30 Bulldogs -2.43 -13.35 10.90 Rabbitohs -2.66 0.87 -3.50 Dolphins -2.81 -7.09 4.30 Dragons -3.66 -6.93 3.30 Eels -5.41 0.14 -5.50 Titans -5.91 -7.89 2.00 Raiders -6.72 -4.31 -2.40 Wests Tigers -11.43 -13.15 1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 128 matches played, 74 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.8%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Jun 28 15 – 14 -3.30 FALSE 2 Warriors vs. Broncos Jun 29 32 – 16 -0.10 FALSE 3 Knights vs. Eels Jun 29 34 – 26 5.70 TRUE 4 Storm vs. Raiders Jun 29 16 – 6 17.20 TRUE 5 Dragons vs. Dolphins Jun 30 26 – 6 -0.30 FALSE 6 Panthers vs. Cowboys Jun 30 6 – 16 14.60 FALSE 7 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers Jun 30 40 – 6 21.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Jul 04 Eels 0.20 2 Sharks vs. Titans Jul 05 Sharks 9.20 3 Broncos vs. Panthers Jul 05 Panthers -3.00 4 Bulldogs vs. Warriors Jul 06 Bulldogs 6.40 5 Wests Tigers vs. Storm Jul 06 Storm -15.00 6 Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles Jul 06 Cowboys 2.20 7 Roosters vs. Dragons Jul 07 Roosters 15.60 8 Raiders vs. Knights Jul 07 Knights -1.30

 

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