NRL Predictions for Round 19

Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Roosters 9.77 3.08 6.70 Panthers 9.58 14.73 -5.20 Storm 6.40 6.15 0.20 Broncos 2.97 9.07 -6.10 Sharks 2.52 2.94 -0.40 Sea Eagles 1.60 -0.48 2.10 Cowboys 0.36 2.47 -2.10 Warriors -1.52 -0.07 -1.40 Rabbitohs -1.67 0.87 -2.50 Knights -2.23 1.84 -4.10 Bulldogs -2.78 -13.35 10.60 Dolphins -2.81 -7.09 4.30 Dragons -4.55 -6.93 2.40 Titans -5.10 -7.89 2.80 Eels -6.40 0.14 -6.50 Raiders -6.91 -4.31 -2.60 Wests Tigers -11.23 -13.15 1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.1%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Jul 04 16 – 32 0.20 FALSE 2 Sharks vs. Titans Jul 05 16 – 20 9.20 FALSE 3 Broncos vs. Panthers Jul 05 6 – 14 -3.00 TRUE 4 Bulldogs vs. Warriors Jul 06 13 – 12 6.40 TRUE 5 Wests Tigers vs. Storm Jul 06 28 – 40 -15.00 TRUE 6 Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles Jul 06 20 – 21 2.20 FALSE 7 Roosters vs. Dragons Jul 07 42 – 12 15.60 TRUE 8 Raiders vs. Knights Jul 07 12 – 16 -1.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Dolphins vs. Rabbitohs Jul 11 Dolphins 1.90 2 Sharks vs. Wests Tigers Jul 12 Sharks 16.80 3 Titans vs. Eels Jul 13 Titans 4.30 4 Broncos vs. Dragons Jul 13 Broncos 10.50 5 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Jul 14 Sea Eagles 6.80

 

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