AFL Predictions for Week 19

Stats Chat 2024-07-09

Team Ratings for Week 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Sydney Swans 23.49 9.23 14.30 Brisbane Lions 17.16 17.47 -0.30 Carlton Blues 16.59 9.73 6.90 Fremantle Dockers 9.76 0.40 9.40 GWS Giants 8.82 12.60 -3.80 Geelong Cats 8.70 10.50 -1.80 Western Bulldogs 7.16 6.04 1.10 Collingwood 6.04 14.87 -8.80 Adelaide Crows 5.90 9.56 -3.70 Melbourne Demons 4.85 13.91 -9.10 Port Adelaide Power 2.41 8.83 -6.40 Gold Coast Suns -1.50 -4.60 3.10 Hawthorn Hawks -2.90 -11.08 8.20 St Kilda Saints -3.15 -0.63 -2.50 Essendon Bombers -7.63 -17.70 10.10 Richmond Tigers -24.54 -6.13 -18.40 North Melbourne -30.21 -25.73 -4.50 West Coast Eagles -36.78 -43.10 6.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 94 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.3%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Collingwood vs. Essendon Bombers Jul 05 80 – 92 17.60 FALSE 2 North Melbourne vs. Gold Coast Suns Jul 06 87 – 83 -23.40 FALSE 3 Port Adelaide Power vs. Western Bulldogs Jul 06 102 – 54 -1.90 FALSE 4 Geelong Cats vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jul 06 110 – 59 16.10 TRUE 5 GWS Giants vs. Carlton Blues Jul 06 116 – 104 -1.80 FALSE 6 Fremantle Dockers vs. Richmond Tigers Jul 06 105 – 54 41.10 TRUE 7 Melbourne Demons vs. West Coast Eagles Jul 07 112 – 58 49.70 TRUE 8 St Kilda Saints vs. Sydney Swans Jul 07 84 – 82 -20.80 FALSE 9 Brisbane Lions vs. Adelaide Crows Jul 07 97 – 86 22.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 19

Here are the predictions for Week 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Collingwood vs. Geelong Cats Jul 12 Collingwood 6.30 2 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Fremantle Dockers Jul 13 Fremantle Dockers -3.70 3 Sydney Swans vs. North Melbourne Jul 13 Sydney Swans 62.70 4 Western Bulldogs vs. Carlton Blues Jul 13 Carlton Blues -18.40 5 Adelaide Crows vs. St Kilda Saints Jul 13 Adelaide Crows 18.00 6 Melbourne Demons vs. Essendon Bombers Jul 13 Melbourne Demons 12.50 7 Gold Coast Suns vs. Port Adelaide Power Jul 14 Gold Coast Suns 5.10 8 Richmond Tigers vs. GWS Giants Jul 14 GWS Giants -24.40 9 West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Jul 14 Brisbane Lions -44.90

 

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