Currie Cup Predictions for Round 3

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Cheetahs 10.16 6.37 3.80 Bulls 2.78 -0.48 3.30 Lions 1.77 -4.44 6.20 Pumas 0.54 4.30 -3.80 Sharks -0.42 0.96 -1.40 Western Province -0.99 0.59 -1.60 Griquas -3.66 -2.59 -1.10 Griffons -20.18 -14.70 -5.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Griquas vs. Sharks Jul 12 34 – 31 -0.60 FALSE 2 Pumas vs. Lions Jul 13 21 – 75 12.80 FALSE 3 Cheetahs vs. Western Province Jul 13 37 – 17 13.30 TRUE 4 Griffons vs. Bulls Jul 14 10 – 52 -14.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Lions vs. Griquas Jul 19 Lions 8.90 2 Pumas vs. Sharks Jul 19 Pumas 4.50 3 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Jul 20 Cheetahs -3.90 4 Griffons vs. Western Province Jul 22 Western Province -15.70

 

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