Currie Cup Predictions for Round 4

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Cheetahs 8.71 6.37 2.30 Bulls 4.23 -0.48 4.70 Lions 2.14 -4.44 6.60 Western Province 1.83 0.59 1.20 Pumas 1.71 4.30 -2.60 Sharks -1.59 0.96 -2.50 Griquas -4.03 -2.59 -1.40 Griffons -22.99 -14.70 -8.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Lions vs. Griquas Jul 19 25 – 13 8.90 TRUE 2 Sharks vs. Pumas Jul 19 21 – 31 2.50 FALSE 3 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Jul 20 25 – 13 -3.90 FALSE 4 Griffons vs. Western Province Jul 22 15 – 64 -15.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Griffons vs. Cheetahs Jul 26 Cheetahs -28.20 2 Pumas vs. Griquas Jul 27 Pumas 9.20 3 Lions vs. Sharks Jul 27 Lions 7.20 4 Bulls vs. Western Province Jul 28 Bulls 5.90

 

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