NRL Predictions for Round 22

Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Panthers 10.36 14.73 -4.40 Roosters 8.56 3.08 5.50 Storm 7.84 6.15 1.70 Sea Eagles 4.78 -0.48 5.30 Sharks 3.99 2.94 1.10 Broncos 0.91 9.07 -8.20 Cowboys 0.68 2.47 -1.80 Bulldogs -0.55 -13.35 12.80 Warriors -1.99 -0.07 -1.90 Dolphins -2.50 -7.09 4.60 Rabbitohs -3.19 0.87 -4.10 Knights -4.86 1.84 -6.70 Titans -5.11 -7.89 2.80 Dragons -5.24 -6.93 1.70 Raiders -5.56 -4.31 -1.20 Eels -7.09 0.14 -7.20 Wests Tigers -13.05 -13.15 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 156 matches played, 93 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.6%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Warriors vs. Wests Tigers Jul 26 28 – 16 18.90 TRUE 2 Eels vs. Storm Jul 26 14 – 32 -11.00 TRUE 3 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Jul 27 16 – 41 8.40 FALSE 4 Cowboys vs. Sharks Jul 27 30 – 22 -1.50 FALSE 5 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Jul 27 34 – 30 7.20 TRUE 6 Dragons vs. Panthers Jul 28 10 – 46 -9.40 TRUE 7 Dolphins vs. Titans Jul 28 14 – 21 7.40 FALSE 8 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs Jul 28 32 – 12 -2.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys Aug 01 Cowboys -10.70 2 Warriors vs. Eels Aug 02 Warriors 12.10 3 Dolphins vs. Roosters Aug 02 Roosters -11.10 4 Titans vs. Broncos Aug 03 Broncos -3.00 5 Storm vs. Dragons Aug 03 Storm 16.10 6 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Aug 03 Sharks 10.20 7 Panthers vs. Knights Aug 04 Panthers 18.20 8 Bulldogs vs. Raiders Aug 04 Bulldogs 8.00

 

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