Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 1

Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Wellington 10.63 10.63 -0.00 Hawke’s Bay 6.09 6.09 -0.00 Canterbury 6.01 6.01 -0.00 Waikato 5.30 5.30 -0.00 Taranaki 5.21 5.21 -0.00 Bay of Plenty 3.52 3.52 -0.00 North Harbour 3.06 3.06 -0.00 Auckland 3.00 3.00 -0.00 Tasman 2.17 2.17 0.00 Otago -3.26 -3.26 -0.00 Northland -4.29 -4.29 -0.00 Counties Manukau -5.22 -5.22 -0.00 Southland -10.05 -10.05 -0.00 Manawatu -18.73 -18.73 -0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Taranaki vs. Counties Manukau Aug 09 Taranaki 13.40 2 Auckland vs. Wellington Aug 09 Wellington -4.60 3 Canterbury vs. Northland Aug 10 Canterbury 13.30 4 Southland vs. Otago Aug 10 Otago -3.80 5 Waikato vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 10 Waikato 4.80 6 North Harbour vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 11 Hawke’s Bay -0.00 7 Manawatu vs. Tasman Aug 11 Tasman -17.90 8 Bay of Plenty vs. Counties Manukau Aug 14 Bay of Plenty 11.70

 

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