Currie Cup Predictions for Round 6

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Cheetahs 5.87 6.37 -0.50 Bulls 5.76 -0.48 6.20 Pumas 3.58 4.30 -0.70 Sharks 0.95 0.96 -0.00 Lions 0.88 -4.44 5.30 Western Province 0.49 0.59 -0.10 Griquas -7.19 -2.59 -4.60 Griffons -20.35 -14.70 -5.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 20 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Aug 03 34 – 34 4.80 FALSE 2 Pumas vs. Sharks Aug 03 44 – 44 7.60 FALSE 3 Western Province vs. Griffons Aug 04 39 – 17 25.10 TRUE 4 Griquas vs. Lions Aug 04 28 – 36 -3.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Lions vs. Pumas Aug 10 Lions 0.80 2 Bulls vs. Griffons Aug 11 Bulls 29.60 3 Western Province vs. Cheetahs Aug 11 Cheetahs -1.90 4 Sharks vs. Griquas Aug 11 Sharks 11.60

 

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