AFL Predictions for Week 23

Team Ratings for Week 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Brisbane Lions 21.25 17.47 3.80 Western Bulldogs 18.17 6.04 12.10 Sydney Swans 14.91 9.23 5.70 Port Adelaide Power 10.72 8.83 1.90 GWS Giants 9.52 12.60 -3.10 Carlton Blues 9.00 9.73 -0.70 Hawthorn Hawks 8.68 -11.08 19.80 Fremantle Dockers 7.75 0.40 7.40 Geelong Cats 7.25 10.50 -3.20 Adelaide Crows 3.52 9.56 -6.00 Collingwood 1.67 14.87 -13.20 Melbourne Demons 0.62 13.91 -13.30 St Kilda Saints -4.03 -0.63 -3.40 Gold Coast Suns -5.50 -4.60 -0.90 Essendon Bombers -9.30 -17.70 8.40 Richmond Tigers -26.37 -6.13 -20.20 North Melbourne -30.34 -25.73 -4.60 West Coast Eagles -33.34 -43.10 9.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 180 matches played, 116 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.4%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Western Bulldogs vs. Melbourne Demons Aug 02 110 – 59 22.80 TRUE 2 West Coast Eagles vs. Gold Coast Suns Aug 02 97 – 87 -23.20 FALSE 3 North Melbourne vs. Richmond Tigers Aug 03 90 – 77 2.80 TRUE 4 Geelong Cats vs. Adelaide Crows Aug 03 90 – 85 14.90 TRUE 5 Collingwood vs. Carlton Blues Aug 03 84 – 81 -10.20 FALSE 6 Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Aug 03 148 – 36 -8.10 FALSE 7 GWS Giants vs. Hawthorn Hawks Aug 04 84 – 82 12.10 TRUE 8 Essendon Bombers vs. Fremantle Dockers Aug 04 90 – 89 -10.60 FALSE 9 St Kilda Saints vs. Brisbane Lions Aug 04 39 – 124 -7.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 23

Here are the predictions for Week 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Sydney Swans vs. Collingwood Aug 09 Sydney Swans 22.20 2 Brisbane Lions vs. GWS Giants Aug 10 Brisbane Lions 20.70 3 North Melbourne vs. West Coast Eagles Aug 10 North Melbourne 12.00 4 Fremantle Dockers vs. Geelong Cats Aug 10 Fremantle Dockers 9.50 5 Essendon Bombers vs. Gold Coast Suns Aug 10 Essendon Bombers 5.20 6 Melbourne Demons vs. Port Adelaide Power Aug 10 Port Adelaide Power -1.10 7 Carlton Blues vs. Hawthorn Hawks Aug 11 Carlton Blues 0.30 8 Richmond Tigers vs. St Kilda Saints Aug 11 St Kilda Saints -31.30 9 Adelaide Crows vs. Western Bulldogs Aug 11 Western Bulldogs -5.70

 

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