Currie Cup Predictions for Round 10

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Lions 9.66 -4.44 14.10 Bulls 5.81 -0.48 6.30 Sharks 5.78 0.96 4.80 Cheetahs 1.82 6.37 -4.60 Western Province -1.27 0.59 -1.90 Pumas -1.84 4.30 -6.10 Griquas -3.52 -2.59 -0.90 Griffons -26.44 -14.70 -11.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 36 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.9%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Aug 30 44 – 31 -5.10 FALSE 2 Bulls vs. Lions Aug 31 33 – 57 4.50 FALSE 3 Sharks vs. Griffons Aug 31 75 – 19 31.40 TRUE 4 Western Province vs. Pumas Sep 01 39 – 30 2.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Griquas vs. Western Province Sep 06 Griquas 1.20 2 Lions vs. Griffons Sep 07 Lions 39.60 3 Pumas vs. Cheetahs Sep 07 Cheetahs -0.20 4 Sharks vs. Bulls Sep 08 Sharks 3.50

 

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