Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 4

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Saracens 9.97 9.68 0.30 Bristol 8.49 9.58 -1.10 Bath 6.33 5.55 0.80 Leicester Tigers 4.94 3.27 1.70 Northampton Saints 4.16 7.50 -3.30 Sale Sharks 1.65 4.73 -3.10 Exeter Chiefs 1.11 1.23 -0.10 Harlequins -1.42 -2.73 1.30 Gloucester -4.83 -9.04 4.20 Newcastle Falcons -19.65 -19.02 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 15 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins Oct 05 33 – 29 14.10 TRUE 2 Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester Oct 05 31 – 27 15.20 TRUE 3 Bath vs. Bristol Oct 06 26 – 36 7.90 FALSE 4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 06 10 – 42 -14.60 TRUE 5 Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 07 29 – 14 15.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Sale Sharks vs. Newcastle Falcons Oct 12 Sale Sharks 27.80 2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol Oct 13 Bristol -0.90 3 Gloucester vs. Bath Oct 13 Bath -4.70 4 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints Oct 13 Leicester Tigers 7.30 5 Harlequins vs. Saracens Oct 14 Saracens -4.90

 

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