Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Quarter-Finals

Team Ratings for the Quarter-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Wellington 7.16 10.63 -3.50 Bay of Plenty 7.08 3.52 3.60 Tasman 6.76 2.17 4.60 Taranaki 6.40 5.21 1.20 Waikato 5.74 5.30 0.40 Canterbury 2.96 6.01 -3.10 North Harbour 1.80 3.06 -1.30 Hawke’s Bay 0.61 6.09 -5.50 Auckland 0.39 3.00 -2.60 Counties Manukau -0.14 -5.22 5.10 Otago -1.51 -3.26 1.70 Northland -7.36 -4.29 -3.10 Southland -7.76 -10.05 2.30 Manawatu -18.66 -18.73 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 52 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.3%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Northland vs. Otago Oct 04 28 – 31 -2.80 TRUE 2 Manawatu vs. Counties Manukau Oct 05 26 – 45 -14.40 TRUE 3 Southland vs. North Harbour Oct 05 59 – 35 -10.60 FALSE 4 Wellington vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 05 46 – 28 8.00 TRUE 5 Canterbury vs. Waikato Oct 05 36 – 19 -2.30 FALSE 6 Tasman vs. Taranaki Oct 06 29 – 42 5.90 FALSE 7 Auckland vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 06 24 – 26 -4.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Wellington vs. Counties Manukau Oct 11 Wellington 10.30 2 Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 12 Bay of Plenty 9.50 3 Taranaki vs. Waikato Oct 12 Taranaki 3.70 4 Tasman vs. Canterbury Oct 13 Tasman 6.80

 

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