Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 5

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Bristol 8.91 9.58 -0.70 Saracens 8.78 9.68 -0.90 Bath 8.26 5.55 2.70 Leicester Tigers 5.81 3.27 2.50 Northampton Saints 3.29 7.50 -4.20 Sale Sharks 2.17 4.73 -2.60 Exeter Chiefs 0.69 1.23 -0.50 Harlequins -0.23 -2.73 2.50 Gloucester -6.76 -9.04 2.30 Newcastle Falcons -20.17 -19.02 -1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 20 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Sale Sharks vs. Newcastle Falcons Oct 12 43 – 10 27.80 TRUE 2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol Oct 13 35 – 40 -0.90 TRUE 3 Gloucester vs. Bath Oct 13 31 – 55 -4.70 TRUE 4 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints Oct 13 24 – 8 7.30 TRUE 5 Harlequins vs. Saracens Oct 14 17 – 10 -4.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 19 Exeter Chiefs -14.40 2 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks Oct 19 Northampton Saints 7.60 3 Bristol vs. Saracens Oct 20 Bristol 6.60 4 Harlequins vs. Bath Oct 20 Bath -2.00 5 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Oct 21 Leicester Tigers 19.10

 

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