United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 7

Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Leinster 15.01 12.09 2.90 Glasgow 10.98 9.39 1.60 Bulls 8.21 8.83 -0.60 Lions 6.08 6.73 -0.60 Stormers 4.63 6.75 -2.10 Munster 4.55 9.28 -4.70 Edinburgh 1.88 0.09 1.80 Ulster 1.88 2.52 -0.60 Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00 Benetton -0.79 1.02 -1.80 Connacht -0.92 -0.76 -0.20 Sharks -2.03 -2.94 0.90 Ospreys -3.68 -2.51 -1.20 Cardiff Rugby -5.15 -2.55 -2.60 Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00 Scarlets -6.78 -10.65 3.90 Dragons -14.01 -15.41 1.40 Zebre -14.12 -16.17 2.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 46 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.7%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Benetton vs. Bulls Oct 26 15 – 17 -3.90 TRUE 2 Scarlets vs. Zebre Oct 26 30 – 8 11.20 TRUE 3 Stormers vs. Glasgow Oct 27 17 – 28 1.00 FALSE 4 Ospreys vs. Edinburgh Oct 27 22 – 13 -1.70 FALSE 5 Sharks vs. Munster Oct 27 41 – 24 -4.00 FALSE 6 Leinster vs. Lions Oct 27 24 – 6 13.40 TRUE 7 Cardiff Rugby vs. Ulster Oct 27 21 – 19 -2.50 FALSE 8 Connacht vs. Dragons Oct 27 31 – 7 17.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Glasgow vs. Scarlets Nov 30 Glasgow 23.30 2 Ulster vs. Leinster Nov 30 Leinster -10.60 3 Sharks vs. Stormers Dec 01 Stormers -4.20 4 Cardiff Rugby vs. Dragons Dec 01 Cardiff Rugby 11.40 5 Connacht vs. Bulls Dec 01 Bulls -3.60 6 Edinburgh vs. Benetton Dec 01 Edinburgh 8.20 7 Munster vs. Lions Dec 01 Munster 4.00 8 Zebre vs. Ospreys Dec 01 Ospreys -4.90

 

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