Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 7

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Bath 9.48 5.55 3.90 Saracens 8.15 9.68 -1.50 Bristol 7.94 9.58 -1.60 Leicester Tigers 5.70 3.27 2.40 Northampton Saints 5.63 7.50 -1.90 Harlequins 2.01 -2.73 4.70 Sale Sharks -1.28 4.73 -6.00 Exeter Chiefs -3.58 1.23 -4.80 Gloucester -4.20 -9.04 4.80 Newcastle Falcons -19.09 -19.02 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Bristol vs. Northampton Saints Oct 26 31 – 23 9.00 TRUE 2 Gloucester vs. Newcastle Falcons Oct 27 36 – 7 19.50 TRUE 3 Bath vs. Sale Sharks Oct 27 40 – 13 14.80 TRUE 4 Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 27 29 – 32 11.90 FALSE 5 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins Oct 28 19 – 36 5.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Harlequins vs. Bristol Nov 30 Harlequins 0.60 2 Newcastle Falcons vs. Saracens Nov 30 Saracens -20.70 3 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester Dec 01 Northampton Saints 16.30 4 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Dec 01 Bath 19.60 5 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 02 Leicester Tigers -0.50

 

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