Top 14 Predictions for Round 12

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Stade Toulousain 11.20 8.76 2.40 Bordeaux Begles 5.39 3.96 1.40 Toulon 4.96 5.32 -0.40 Stade Rochelais 3.91 4.85 -0.90 Racing 92 1.84 2.75 -0.90 Clermont 1.45 0.41 1.00 Montpellier 0.70 -0.96 1.70 Bayonne 0.34 -1.69 2.00 Castres Olympique -0.06 -0.09 0.00 Section Paloise -0.33 1.38 -1.70 Stade Francais -0.41 1.86 -2.30 Lyon -1.43 -0.18 -1.30 USA Perpignan -3.32 -0.66 -2.70 Vannes -8.52 -10.00 1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 77 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 79.2%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Montpellier Dec 01 9 – 6 13.00 TRUE 2 Clermont vs. Castres Olympique Dec 01 54 – 10 5.00 TRUE 3 Racing 92 vs. Stade Toulousain Dec 01 17 – 21 -1.30 TRUE 4 Section Paloise vs. Lyon Dec 01 29 – 15 7.40 TRUE 5 Stade Rochelais vs. Vannes Dec 01 14 – 23 20.30 FALSE 6 USA Perpignan vs. Toulon Dec 01 13 – 22 0.20 FALSE 7 Bayonne vs. Stade Francais Dec 02 21 – 13 7.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Castres Olympique vs. Bordeaux Begles Dec 22 Castres Olympique 0.10 2 Montpellier vs. Racing 92 Dec 22 Montpellier 4.20 3 Stade Francais vs. USA Perpignan Dec 22 Stade Francais 8.90 4 Stade Rochelais vs. Clermont Dec 22 Stade Rochelais 9.50 5 Toulon vs. Section Paloise Dec 22 Toulon 10.20 6 Vannes vs. Bayonne Dec 22 Bayonne -2.40 7 Lyon vs. Stade Toulousain Dec 23 Stade Toulousain -5.00

 

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