Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 8

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Bristol 10.40 9.58 0.80 Bath 7.92 5.55 2.40 Saracens 5.58 9.68 -4.10 Leicester Tigers 4.25 3.27 1.00 Northampton Saints 3.20 7.50 -4.30 Sale Sharks 0.16 4.73 -4.60 Harlequins -0.45 -2.73 2.30 Gloucester -1.77 -9.04 7.30 Exeter Chiefs -2.02 1.23 -3.20 Newcastle Falcons -16.51 -19.02 2.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 22 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.9%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Harlequins vs. Bristol Nov 30 24 – 48 0.60 FALSE 2 Newcastle Falcons vs. Saracens Nov 30 17 – 12 -20.70 FALSE 3 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester Dec 01 17 – 25 16.30 FALSE 4 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Dec 01 19 – 15 19.60 TRUE 5 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 02 39 – 25 -0.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Gloucester vs. Harlequins Dec 21 Gloucester 5.20 2 Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol Dec 22 Leicester Tigers 0.30 3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bath Dec 22 Bath -17.90 4 Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs Dec 22 Sale Sharks 8.70 5 Saracens vs. Northampton Saints Dec 23 Saracens 8.90

 

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