Top 14 Predictions for Round 13

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Stade Toulousain 10.88 8.76 2.10 Bordeaux Begles 5.74 3.96 1.80 Toulon 5.69 5.32 0.40 Stade Rochelais 3.68 4.85 -1.20 Racing 92 1.86 2.75 -0.90 Clermont 1.70 0.41 1.30 Montpellier 0.71 -0.96 1.70 Bayonne 0.58 -1.69 2.30 Stade Francais -0.09 1.86 -2.00 Castres Olympique -0.46 -0.09 -0.40 Section Paloise -1.07 1.38 -2.50 Lyon -1.17 -0.18 -1.00 USA Perpignan -3.64 -0.66 -3.00 Vannes -8.67 -10.00 1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 84 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.6%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Castres Olympique vs. Bordeaux Begles Dec 22 3 – 13 0.10 FALSE 2 Montpellier vs. Racing 92 Dec 22 21 – 17 4.20 TRUE 3 Stade Francais vs. USA Perpignan Dec 22 24 – 7 8.90 TRUE 4 Stade Rochelais vs. Clermont Dec 22 20 – 15 9.50 TRUE 5 Toulon vs. Section Paloise Dec 22 56 – 25 10.20 TRUE 6 Vannes vs. Bayonne Dec 22 21 – 27 -2.40 TRUE 7 Lyon vs. Stade Toulousain Dec 23 17 – 17 -5.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Bayonne vs. Castres Olympique Dec 29 Bayonne 8.60 2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Toulon Dec 29 Bordeaux Begles 7.50 3 Clermont vs. Montpellier Dec 29 Clermont 7.30 4 Section Paloise vs. Vannes Dec 29 Section Paloise 14.70 5 Racing 92 vs. Lyon Dec 30 Racing 92 9.60 6 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Francais Dec 30 Stade Toulousain 16.60 7 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Rochelais Dec 30 USA Perpignan 0.10

 

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